Amazon reports that ebook sales have outsold print book sales. As more readers buy ereaders like Kindle and Nook and iPad, those numbers will continue this trend.
Old habits die hard, they say, but just how hard will the transition be from hardcover books to digital media for readers and retailers? And what will the authors be signing ten years hence? Imagine a futuristic iPad, Kindle, or Nook on which an author places his or her thumbprint, instantly generating a stored signature and activating a built-in camera which would record the event, adding a video record as an annotation. While no one is quite certain what the future may bring, those tracking such possibilities are hurriedly trying to assimilate the implications of newly emerging formats just as economists track emerging markets. For as Stephen King put it to CNN, "The book is not the important part. The book is the delivery system. The important part is the story."
An overview is in order. Let's say you go into one of Barnes & Noble's seven hundred plus superstores, such as at Foothills Mall, and purchase a $26 hardcover bestseller. The production cost on that book was $4.05, and the author will receive $3.90. That leaves $18.05 to be shared between the publisher and the bookstore, after shipping costs. It also assumes that the book will be sold, and not returned or "remaindered," as they say in the trade. With an electronic book downloaded from the net, however, there are no returns or shipping costs, while for an average $9.99 ebook the production cost is 50 cents. The author gets $2.12, leaving the publisher and provider with $7.87 to share, and without having to pay overtime or real estate taxes on brick and mortar. No trees are cut down to make these books, either, and although plastic and silicon go into the devices storing them, you can carry hundreds of books in the palm of your hand (which also makes moving easier). Add to this news that iPads and Kindles have sold millions of units in the past year, and you'll understand why digital book sales are rising fast while printed book sales are flat or even declining. As a consequence, Barnes & Noble is rethinking its business model in America, while Sony anticipates strong demand for digital books and new easier-on-the-eye "e-ink" ereaders in Asian markets.
Does this mean print books won't be found at future Festivals? Not really. A majority of consumers recently polled (41.9% vs. 23.24%) still prefer turning pages. And it is unlikely that print books will ever go away entirely. But the technology and the trends do not lie. While the ebook market is only around 5% of total sales today, according to the Wall Street Journal by the end of 2012 that figure will be 25%, then 50% by the following year. And by 2015 China will be the largest market for books in any format. Times, they be a-changin,' to quote Dylan. Meaning that not only will more independent bookstores close, but chain bookstores like Borders too.
Another aspect to the changing publishing industry is the success of audiobooks, which today are like audio movies, with screen actors like Sandra Oh and Michael Madsen joining longtime narrators in multi-cast productions with transition music and sound effects. According to the Audio Publishers Association, the industry clocked its first billion dollar sales year in 2008, thanks to consumers who want to multitask while driving or doing chores. "It is one of the few bright spots in publishing," marketing consultant and former APA president Caitlin Friedman told me. And while there was a slight slump in 2009 due to the recession, downloads have shown a steady increase as a percentage of sales, up from 17% in 2007 to 29% in 2010 (and making up 49% of total units sold). What began as cassette collections produced by the Library of Congress in the early 70s has now led to Audible downloads in the millions per month, with traditional CDs and Mp3 CDs being engineered by audio divisions at Random House, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, Penguin, and dozens of smaller independents.
What do authors think of all this? Those that I've interviewed in the past--including David Baldacci, Janet Evanovich, and James Patterson--are bullish on alternative media, and do not see the hardcover decline as foretelling their own extinction. Patterson, like Stephen King, has championed ebooks and audiobooks, providing free digital chapters of upcoming releases. King has even narrated some of his stories on audio, while Patterson told me, "Ever since I moved out of New York City, I've been addicted to audiobooks. I listen to one or two a week while I'm driving around town. Generally, I listen to the books that I used to buy, but never get around to reading." And Michael Blanding, an award winning investigative journalist who signed at the Tucson Festival of Books, told me, "I've been pleasantly surprised at the response my book has gotten with alternative media--especially with eBooks. At some points in the past few months, the Kindle and iPad versions of my book have sold better than the print edition. It's great because it exposes a whole different readership to the book, with people who might not otherwise plunk down for a hefty hardcover. I think there will always be people like myself who prefer to read a print edition, but I don't think it's a bad thing to expand the market with these alternative forms of media, either."
Blanding's book is "The Coke Machine--The Dirty Truth Behind the World's Favorite Soft Drink." The truth about digital media is that it isn't just "pop," and so it won't be fizzing out in the foreseeable future.
(Originally published in Tucson Weekly)
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